As the 2010 election draws near, many political pundits have predicted that the Democrats will face significant losses in House elections (for a nice summary of election forecasts see here and here). Some have even suggested that the losses will be enough for Democrats to lose majority control over the House. Commentators on CNN have even began discussing how Republicans and Democrats will share power in Washington after the election.
Although it seems highly likely that Democrats will face losses in both chambers in the midterm election (as this is usually the case in midterm elections for members of the President's party), the extent of the losses may be slightly less than expected. A new study by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press suggests that polls that do not call cell phones may be misrepresenting how well Republicans will do in this year's upcoming election. While most national polls do call cell phones, the state and local polls generally do not. Given the study's results, predictions that use state and local polls in predicting this year's election results may be overestimating how well the Republicans will do.
More after the jump…
Julie VanDusky-Allen is at Boise State University and received her PhD in Political Science from Binghamton University in 2011. Her research focuses on institutional choice and development, political parties, the legislative process, and Latin American politics.