Presidential Election 2020: Where things stand with one week to go
Pre-election quantitative analysis of the 2020 presidential race: polling averages, battleground state forecasts, and electoral college projections with one week to go.
Quantitative and formal analysis of international relations, comparative politics, and American politics.
Pre-election quantitative analysis of the 2020 presidential race: polling averages, battleground state forecasts, and electoral college projections with one week to go.
Statistical analysis showing why Trump’s base mobilization strategy was unlikely to succeed in 2020, using demographic data and historical vote share trends.
It is no secret that American politics have become more vitriolic. The parties in Congress have moved farther apart from each other ideologically. They have also become more unified internally. Party elites are increasingly ideologically polarized. This increase in polarization has been well documented. What is less clear is how these changes have affected average … Read more
Donald Trump is not is an economic conservative. He sometimes pays lip service to conservative ideas and has come out in favor of cutting taxes, but these are not the central tenets of his campaign. This is both a stark departure from previous Republican presidential candidates and a large part of why Trump was able to … Read more
There are a lot of political pundits and observers that are amazed by the success of the Trump campaign. I am not one of them. The reason why I am not surprised is the subtext that is defining the 2016 campaign. There is a very real perception that the U.S. is a county in decline. … Read more
In June 2013, the Supreme Court issued a decision in the case of Shelby County v. Holder, where the Court ruled that Section 4 of the Voting Rights Act was unconstitutional. The contentious 5-4 decision eliminated the Justice department’s mandatory oversight of the electoral process in the Deep South. As a result, many individuals have … Read more
Americans are becoming progressively more accepting of gays and lesbians. According to polling from Pew Research, a majority of Americans now support legalizing same sex marriages. This is a dramatic reversal from the public’s attitudes towards gay marriage just 15 years earlier, where a solid majority (57 percent) of Americans opposed same sex unions. On … Read more
Mitt Romney was a good presidential candidate; he ran a good campaign in the 2012 election. He had the necessary experience. He stayed on message, performed well in the debates, and by most accounts, appeared presidential. Romney also had the benefit of not flying into a strong economic headwind; the state of the economy certainly … Read more
In the wake of the 2012 victory by Democratic incumbent Barack Obama, many within the Republican Party were deeply troubled by the election returns. Republican challenger Mitt Romney faired poorly among ethnic and racial minorities, to the point where Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus equated the party’s performance among Latinos (Romney won just 27 percent … Read more
Does familiarity with members of out-groups breed contempt or acceptance? The relationship between the geographic distribution of ethnic and racial minorities and white attitudes has been the subject of considerable academic debate since V.O. Key’s 1949 landmark Southern Politics. In Southern Politics, Key advanced the claim that white racial conservatism was the strongest in places … Read more