Quantitative and formal analysis of international relations, comparative politics, and American politics.
Michael Flynn 
Whew—it’s been a minute since I’ve written a blog post. But I recently published a paper that seemed like it would lend itself nicely to a new post, so here we are! Before I move on I’ll note that this is an abbreviated version of a longer post from my personal blog. You can read … Read more
New research on civilian victimization and rebel territorial control in Sierra Leone’s civil war, examining variation in atrocities across conflict zones.
A public approval theory of the 2020 US-Iran military escalation: did domestic politics drive Trump’s decision to kill Soleimani?
A direct rebuttal of the claim that academics lack real-world experience—examining what political science research actually contributes to policy.
Analysis of the US-ROK burden sharing dispute: what does South Korea actually owe, and why are the numbers so politically charged?
This is a quick post that was inspired by some thinking I was doing yesterday while finishing up a project and a resulting tweet that seemed to garner a bit of attention (relative standards here, people). You can find it below. The punch line is this: You should probably nominate your own work for awards, … Read more
⚠️ This post was written in September 2019 and reflects the political situation at that time. Some details may be outdated. A copy of the whistleblower’s report to the Inspector General of the Intelligence Community was released this morning. I don’t have a lot to add beyond the analyses that are circulating around various media … Read more
Last week President Trump tweeted that his National Security Adviser, Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, would be leaving the administration and would be replaced by John Bolton. McMaster is Trump’s second National Security Adviser since taking office, replacing former Lieutenant General Michael Flynn after the latter’s departure. As I noted in a previous post on Rex … Read more
On Tuesday, President Trump issued a tweet announcing that Rex Tillerson would be replaced as Secretary of State by current CIA Director Mike Pompeo. That Tillerson would be replaced as Secretary was not exactly news—reports of the tense relationship between Tillerson and the President date back several months at this point. What was surprising was the … Read more
This post is based on the article “Before the dominos fall: Regional conflict, donor interests, and US foreign aid“, forthcoming at Conflict Management and Peace Science. From the initial uprisings in 2011 through the present, the civil conflict in Syria has been one of the most complex and pressing international crises in recent memory. The United … Read more