Election Predictions 2012

Discussing the election is all but inevitable.  Given my proclivity for numbers, I gathered opinions from 11 willing "experts," including 5 political scientists, 3 bloggers from the QP, 8 PhDs, and members from other related field (Public Policy, Communication, and Planning). Nine of the members are from Boise State.  Of course, to reward those who did better, there were points assigned to each category and I will be able to declare a winner likely by tomorrow.

The Battleground States:

Pennyslvania: 11-0 in favor of the Democrats winning.
North Carolina:9-2 in favor of the Democrats winning.
New Hampshire: 10-1 in favor of the Democrats winning. 
Iowa: 8-3 in favor of the Democrats winning.
Colorado: 7-4 in favor of the Democrats winning.
Wisconsin: 10-1 in favor of the Democrats winning.
Nevada: 11-0 in favor of the Democrats winning.
Virginia: 9-2 in favor of the Democrats winning.
Florida: 8-3 in favor of the Republicans winning.
Ohio: 11-0 in favor of the Democrats winning.

The Popular Vote for the Winner:

Mean: 50.78
Range: 48.3 – 52.3

The Electoral College for the Winner:

Mean: 306.82
Range: 287-330

Senate Seats:

Massachusetts: 10-1 for the Democrat candidate.
Connecticut: 7-4 for the Democrat candidate.
Missouri: 11-0 for the Democratic candidate.
North Dakota: 10-1 for the Republican candidate.
Indiana:6-5 for the Republican candidate.
Wisconsin: 9-2 for the Democrat candidate.
Arizona: 11-0 for the Republican candidate.
Montana: 7-4 for the Republican candidate.
Nevada: 7-4 for the Republican candidate.
Virginia: 8-3 for the Democrat candidate.

Idaho Proposals (Keeping it local):
Proposition 1: 8-3 predict the measure will fail.
Proposition 2: 7-4 predict the measure will fail.
Proposition 3: 9-2 predict the measure will fail.
HJR 2: 9-2 predict the amendment will pass.
SJR 102: 9-2 predict the amendment will pass.

Seats held by the Democrats in the House

 Mean: 200.46
Range: 194-207 

 

 

Many of those who participated in the poll (from Boise State) are live blogging over at the Blue Review.

 

Michael A. Allen

About Michael A. Allen

Michael is an Assistant Professor in Political Science at Boise State University with a focus in International Relations, Comparative Politics, and Methodology (quantitative and formal). His work includes issues related to military basing abroad, asymmetric relations, cooperation, and conflict. He received his Ph.D from Binghamton University in 2011.

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