Aggregating Predictions for 2008

On October 7th, a peer of mine collected 20 surveys from self-selected (volunteered) members of the political science department (from first year graduate students to professors) on an electoral challenge.  The survey presented seventeen different questions in regards to electoral outcomes and those who were able to predict the most accurately 14 of the 17 questions (with 3 of the questions serving as tie breakers) win an undisclosed prize for the top performer.  There is no prize awarded for second place. This is neither a random sample nor a sample of electoral experts, but instead represents a combination of strategic Continue reading Aggregating Predictions for 2008